摘要
Abstract
In allusion to the problem that evaluation information is not comprehensive for full life cycle investment evaluation on the power grid acquired from deterministic method or the probability analysis method based on single index,this paper considers uncertain factors such as electric quantity,electricity price,comprehensive line loss,power supply reliability rate, unit power-cut cost,remaining value rate,benchmark discount rate,and so on and presents an evaluation method for full life cycle investment risk of the incremental power distribution network based on Monte Carlo method. By means of expec-ted values,variance and probability distribution information of evaluation index such as net present values,net present value rate,internal rate of return,dynamic investment payback period,and so on,this method is used for economic evaluation and infeasible probability analysis. Taking an investment scheme of one incremental power distribution network from 2016 to 2035 as an example for investment risk evaluation,this paper proves feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The next research focuses on financing proposal evaluation and decision method for the incremental power distribution net-work under conditions of certainty and uncertainty.关键词
配电网/投资风险评估/蒙特卡洛法/全寿命周期/净现值/净现值率/内部收益率/动态投资回收期Key words
power distribution network/investment risk evaluation/Monte Carlo/full life cycle/net present value/net pres-ent value rate/internal rate of return/dynamic investment payback period分类
信息技术与安全科学
