广东电力2017，Vol.30Issue(9)：81-85,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2017.09.015
改进残差GM(1,1)模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用
Application of Improved Residual Error GM(1,1)Model in Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting
李辉1
作者信息
- 1. 国网台州供电公司,浙江 台州 318000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
GM(1,1)model is a kind of common method for medium and long term load forecasting. In order to solve prob-lems of the residual error GM(1,1)model in judging the symbol of residual error predicted value,this paper presents a kind of improved residual error GM(1,1)model based on na?ve Bayes method.According to historical load growth rate interval, this model can divide load growth states and count numbers of residual error sign under different states as well as numbers of residual error sign a year ago of each state. Then it applies na?ve Bayes method in building the classifier and judging the sym-bol of residual error predicted value. The improved model was applied in electricity consumption forecasting in a county. Ex-ample result indicates that this improved model can effectively improve precision of medium and long term load forecasting which means certain practical value.关键词
中长期负荷预测/残差GM(1,1)模型/朴素贝叶斯法/改进残差GM(1,1)模型Key words
medium and long term load forecasting/residual error GM(1,1)model/naïve Bayes method/improved residual error GM (1,1)model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李辉..改进残差GM(1,1)模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].广东电力,2017,30(9):81-85,5.
