南方电网技术2017，Vol.11Issue(8)：72-79,8.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2017.08.011
考虑气象因素的改进虚拟交互回归负荷预测方法
Improved Dummy Interactive Regression Method for Load Forecasting Considering Meteorological Factors
摘要
Abstract
Due to massive weather sensitive load in terminal equipment, the features of load changing with meteorological factors be-come more and more significant.Based on the virtual dummy regression forecasting model which has low complexity and strong ability to explain, the factors of human power consuming behavior, temperature and relative humidity and their across effects are introduced to the model.The dynamic mapping relationship between load and these factors is deeply mined.In terms of human power consuming behavior, dummy variables are introduced to describe the load changing rule in year, week and day.Load specificity of holidays is considered and quantified to improve the practicability of the model.In terms of temperature, cubic function model is used to describe the relationship of load and temperature, and the recency effect of temperature is put forward that means the lag hourly temperature in-formation is introduced to the model.In terms of relative humidity, a new modeling method is put forward with quadratic function model of variables.At last, the proposed model is validated by actual historical data from 2006 to 2010 in a certain area.The predic-tion results show that the proposed model can reflect the load changing trend in various date types, the method is suitable for municipal power grids with little change in meteorological factors.关键词
负荷预测/多元线性回归/气象温度/相对湿度/虚拟变量Key words
load forecasting/multiple linear regression/meteorological temperature/relative humidity/dummy variable分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李江,王宝财,陈继开..考虑气象因素的改进虚拟交互回归负荷预测方法[J].南方电网技术,2017,11(8):72-79,8.基金项目
吉林市科技计划项目(20156407).Supported by the Science and Technology Plan Project of Jilin (20156407). （20156407）
