水土保持学报2017，Vol.31Issue(5)：292-297,6.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2017.05.045
气温和CO2浓度变化对陕北地区冬小麦产量影响的模拟分析
Effects of Temperature and CO2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi
摘要
Abstract
Analyzing the impact of climate change on agricultural production is beneficial to develop appropriate strategies and protect food security.In the study,the trends of meteorological factors in 1957-2013,and the effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model in Northern Shaanxi Province.The results showed that the annual temperature in Northern Shaanxi increased at a rate of 0.22 ℃/10 a,while the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.15 mm/10 a in 1957-2013.With an increase of 0.1 ℃ in the annual temperature,the winter wheat yield in Yulin and Yan'an increased by 1.5％ and 0.5％,respectively.When annual CO2 concentration increased by 10 μmol/mol,the winter wheat yield increased by 3.8％ and 2％ in Yulin and Yan'an,respectively.When the annual temperature and CO2 concentration rose simultaneously (i.e.,temperature rose by 0.1 ℃ and CO2 concentration increased by 10 μmol/mol),the winter wheat yield increased by 5.1％ and 2.3％ in Yulin and Yan'an,respectively.Only considering the variation of temperature and CO2 concentration,the warm-dry and high-carbon climate were beneficial to improve wheat production in Northern Shaanxi.The winter wheat yield would increase at different degrees in the next 18 years in Northern Shaanxi region.Under three typical years (i.e.dry,normal and wet year),the winter wheat yield in 2020,2025 and 2030 in Yulin would increase by 21.2％ ～31.8％,25.4％ ～36.0％ and 29.7％ ～ 40.7％ respectively compared to that in 2012,whereas,the wheat yield in Yan'an would increase by 3.3％～8.3％,4.4％ ～9.7％ and 4.8％ ～ 10.5％,respectively.Therefore,it is suitable to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately to increase agricultural output in Northern Shaanxi.关键词
气温/CO2浓度/AquaCrop模型/冬小麦产量Key words
temperature/CO2 concentration/AquaCrop model/winter wheat yield分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
周英霞,王全九,何斌,张继红,谭帅..气温和CO2浓度变化对陕北地区冬小麦产量影响的模拟分析[J].水土保持学报,2017,31(5):292-297,6.基金项目
陕西水利科技计划项目 （）
陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划(2014-1010) （2014-1010）
