大地测量与地球动力学2017，Vol.37Issue(11)：1178-1182,5.DOI:10.14075/j.jgg.2017.11.016
一种考虑PMX与PMY之间相关性的极移预报新方法
A New Method to Predict Pole Shift Based on the Correlation Between PMX and PMY
摘要
Abstract
The multivariable regression model combined with least squares is proposed to forecast polar motion.The residual error prediction model is constructed by using the PMX residual and PMY residuals,which not only utilizes the correlation information of the PMX residual and the PMY residual,but also uses the correlation information between the PMX residual and the PMY residual.By comparison with the prediction results of LS+AR model,it is proven that the prediction result of LS+ MAR model is better than that of LS+AR model,and the superiority of LS+ MAR model is also proven.In addition,by comparison with the prediction results of EOP_PCC,it is proven that the LS + MAR model can obtain the prediction results equivalent to the best international prediction accuracy in short-term polar motion prediction.关键词
LS模型/AR模型/MAR模型/极移预报Key words
LS model/AR model/MAR model/polar motion prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王志文,王潜心,何义磊,胡超..一种考虑PMX与PMY之间相关性的极移预报新方法[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2017,37(11):1178-1182,5.基金项目
National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41404033 （）
Special Project of Basic Work of Science and Technology,Ministry of Science and Technology,No.2015FY310200.国家自然科学基金(41404033) （41404033）
国家科技部科技基础性工作专项(2015FY310200). （2015FY310200）
