电力系统自动化2017，Vol.41Issue(5)：1-7,45,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160531012
交直流混合微电网运行优化建模与不确定性分析
Operation Optimization Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Hybrid AC/DC Microgrids
摘要
Abstract
As the operation optimization of hybrid AC/DC microgrids is affected by various uncertain factors,a framework for modeling the influence of these uncertain factors on the operation optimization of the microgrid should be established and the determination of the dominant factors is an important research field.Several uncertain factors,such as the fluctuant renewable energy output,load forecasting error,electricity price volatility,and component failure are analyzed and simulated.An operation optimization model of hybrid AC/DC microgrids is established based on the composite uncertainties mentioned above.Three comprehensive evaluation indices are proposed and analyzed from the perspectives of economy,environmental concerns and reliability,and an uncertainty evaluation is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation.The probability distribution of each evaluation index and the influence weight of each uncertainty factor are obtained.In the case study,the factors with a significant influence on the technical and economic indices are given through the proposed framework,which can provide the reference for the operation optimization of hybrid AC/DC microgrids and the sensitivity analysis of the uncertain factors.关键词
交直流混合微电网/运行优化/蒙特卡洛模拟/不确定性评价/概率抽样Key words
hybrid AC/DC microgrid/operation optimization/Monte Carlo simulation/uncertainty evaluation/probability-based sampling引用本文复制引用
丁明,楚明娟,潘浩,徐志成..交直流混合微电网运行优化建模与不确定性分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(5):1-7,45,8.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2015AA050104).This work is supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program)(No.2015AA050104). （863计划）
