电力系统自动化2017，Vol.41Issue(5)：46-52,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160515018
基于渗流和风险理论的电力系统连锁故障分析
Analysis on Power System Cascading Failure Based on Percolation and Risk Theory
摘要
Abstract
The cascading failure mechanism is studied based on percolation theory combined with electrical properties to explore the fault development path.Firstly,a branch fault percolation probability model is built.By combining with the branch health degree index and importance index,the branch outage probability model is obtained,which could identify a fragile branch in normal operation state of the system and predict a fault branch in fault running state.Secondly,the comprehensive consequence index of the cascading failure path is established.Combined with the path probability,a path risk assessment model is built,which could diagnose and analyze the cascading failure path.Finally,the validity of this method is verified using an IEEE 39 bus system.关键词
电力系统/连锁故障/渗流理论/支路故障停运概率模型/风险评估Key words
power system/cascading failure/percolation theory/branch outage probability model/risk assessment引用本文复制引用
张娟,童晓阳,姜建伟..基于渗流和风险理论的电力系统连锁故障分析[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(5):46-52,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51377137).This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51377137). （51377137）
