热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(5)：577-587,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.05.001
雷达反演潜热在华南区域数值模式汛期短时临近降水预报的应用试验
APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF LATENT HEAT RETRIEVED FROM RADAR ON SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING IN RAINY SEASON USING REGIONAL NUMERICAL MODEL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA
摘要
Abstract
Based on latent heat retrieved from radar reflectivity,comparison experiments of initial condition with and without nudging potential temperature increment due to latent heat are conducted for a case of heavy rain process that occurred on 30 march 2015 as well as for the 31 days of May 2013 to estimate the impact of latent heat on short-range precipitation forecast.The results are as follows.(1) The location of maximum center for predicting 12-hour accumulated precipitation is well reproduced with nudging latent heat,while the location of maximum center without nudging latent heat is far northward from the observed one.The hourly forecast reflectivity 4 hours ahead is close to the observed reflectivity in terms of area and intensity,and hourly TS (threat score) is higher than that without nudging latent heat.(2) Diagnosis analysis shows that nudging of latent heat at initial time could adjust the thermal structure of atmosphere in convective area,revising or enhancing the intensity of local secondary circulation,triggering the release of instable energy and being beneficial to the production of precipitation.(3) Analysis of batch experiments indicates that the initial condition with nudging latent heat has significant impact on hourly forecast in the first 12 hours.关键词
雷达反演潜热/华南区域数值模式/短时临近预报/资料同化Key words
latent heat retrieved from radar/regional numerical model over Southern China/short-range forecast/assimilation of data分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张诚忠,薛纪善,冯业荣,万齐林..雷达反演潜热在华南区域数值模式汛期短时临近降水预报的应用试验[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(5):577-587,11.基金项目
自然科学基金项目(41675099、41475102) （41675099、41475102）
973项目2015CB452802 （）
广州市科技计划项目(201604020012、GYHY201406003)共同资助 （201604020012、GYHY201406003）
