水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(9)：54-59,6.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.09.008
乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统研究与应用
Study and application of automatic flood forecast system for Wuxijiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Due to the limitation of forecast model and imperfection of real-time information,a certain error is there in the process of flood forecast.The precision of flood forecast can be increased by combining the automatic forecast model and the artificial forecast with the interactive correction of the parameters.In the study of the automatic flood forecasting system for Wuxijiang River Basin,the runoff coefficient is adopted to control the gross loss of the antecedent rainfall,and then the runoff yield calculation is made through adjusting the loss of rainfall,while the flow confluence calculation is carried out by selecting the unit hydrograph in accordance with the rainfall center and intensity of the rainfall duration.Meanwhile,the real-time flood forecast with real-time correction and high precision is completed on the basis of the automatic flood forecast combined with the experiences of many years from the relevant forecasters.By taking a typical flood forecast as the actual case,the method of the interactive correction of the parameters from the artificial forecast is more accurate with the difference of the peak occurrence of 1 hour and the flood flow forecast error of 0.74％,thus the forecast precision grade is B.The study result is not only already applied to the automatic flood forecast system for Wuxijiang River Basin in Zhejiang Province,but also has an reference value for the flood forecasts of the other river basins.关键词
洪水预报/径流系数/雨量损失/三层蒸发模式/单位线/人工干预的交互式校正/马溪江流域/浙江省Key words
flood forecast/runoff coefficient/rainfall loss/three-level evaporation mode/unit hydrograph/interactive correction with human intervention/Wuxijiang River Basin/Zhejiang Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
徐刚,韦能,王中央,金亚兰,胡红阳..乌溪江流域自动洪水预报系统研究与应用[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(9):54-59,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51409152) （51409152）
