现代电子技术2017，Vol.40Issue(21)：1-5,9,6.DOI:10.16652/j.issn.1004-373x.2017.21.001
基于遥测数据的在轨卫星性能预测方法研究
Study on performance prediction method of satellite in orbit based on telemetry data
摘要
Abstract
The variation trend of telemetry data of satellite in orbit can reflect the status and changes of the satellite direct-ly,according to which,the performance and trend of the key devices of satellite in orbit can be predicted. On the basis of the characteristics of telemetry data,the data decomposition algorithm based on X-11 is used to decompose the selected variable. The polynomial fitting,nonparametric regression,ARMA model,BP neural network and other methods are adopted to forecast the decomposed data,analyze the processes and accuracy of the methods,and evaluate the attenuation factor. The prediction ex-periment was performed for the temperature parameter of a certain satellite in orbit. The experimental results prove that the average relative error of the proposed prediction method is less than 8%,and the method can predict the performance trend of telemetry data of the satellite in orbit effectively. It provides a technical assurance for the application services such as state monitoring of the satellite in orbit,health management and fault analysis,and has an important practical value.关键词
遥测数据/BP神经网络/ARMA模型/性能预测Key words
telemetry data/BP neural network/ARMA model/performance prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
马凯航,高永明,李磊,吴芷锾..基于遥测数据的在轨卫星性能预测方法研究[J].现代电子技术,2017,40(21):1-5,9,6.基金项目
国家863项目(2015AA1401) （2015AA1401）
