应用生态学报2017，Vol.28Issue(10)：3331-3340,10.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201710.015
中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较
Comparison of the potential geographical distribution of foxtail millet (Setaria italica) predicted by different models
摘要
Abstract
Foxtail millet is one of the main food crops in arid and semi-arid areas of China.Due to its strong anti-adversity,wide adaptability and resistance against drought and barren,the foxtail millet is treated as an important strategic crop reserve for the future drought situation.In this study,data from 157 geographical distributions were used to choose 10 climatic indices,7 soil indices and 3 topographical indices,which were based on the relationship between the foxtail millet production and the environmental factors.Four species distribution models,including maximum entropy model (MaxEnt),ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA),random forest (RF) and generalized additive model (GAM),were applied to analyze the potential geographic distribution of foxtail millet in China.The results showed that all four models did a good job in simulating the potential geographic distribution for foxtail millet and the MaxEnt model was the best one.Precipitation and temperature were most sensitive to the distribution of foxtail millet among all selected environmental factors.The outputs of models,together with the ArcGIS spatial analyst module,displayed that the total potential suitable growing regions for the foxtail millet,including the highly and moderately suitable growing regions,occupied 55.68×104 km2,which were much larger than the actual foxtail millet growing area.The potential suitable growing regions were mainly located in northeast China,including the Northeast Plain,south of Changbai Mountain and Mudanjiang River basin,north China,including north of the Huaihe River,central China,including east of Hanjiang River and north of Dabie Mountains,northwest China,including Loess Plateau,the southern Ordos Plateau,the eastern Qilian Mountains,the eastern Tianshan Mountains and the Altai Mountains,and southwest China,including north of Chongqing and the western Guizhou Province.关键词
谷子/物种分布模型/ArcGIS/潜在地理分布Key words
foxtail millet/species distribution model/ArcGIS/potential geographical distribution引用本文复制引用
高蓓,胡凝,郭彦龙,顾蔚,邹继业..中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(10):3331-3340,10.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金青年项目(41505096)、国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2006BAI06A13-06)、陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(15JK1231)和陕西省农业科技创新项目(2012NKC01-19)资助 This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41505096),the National 11th‘ Five-Year’ Technology Support Program,China(2006BAI06A 13-06),the Special Research Projects of Shaanxi Education Department (15JK1231),and the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Projects of Shaanxi Province (2012NKC01-19). （41505096）
