中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(9)：46-55,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170449
基于选择实验方法的北京市空气质量价值评估
Using choice experiment to evaluate air quality in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
The scientific evaluation of air quality is a prerequisite for the government to develop air pollution control policies.In recent years,choice experiment has been increasingly used to measure environmental values.Compared with other stated preference methods,the higher external validity is an important advantage of choice experiment.At present,several foreign studies have evaluated air quality in different regions by using choice experiment.By contrast,the application of choice experiment in China is still in its infancy.The aim of this paper is to add new empirical evidence on air quality evaluation in Beijing by using the method of choice experiment.Specifically,we design a choice experiment regarding air quality and conduct two online surveys on Beijing residents respectively in 2015 and 2016.According to the survey data,we use random parameter logit model and generalized multinomial logit model to elicit individual's preference on air quality,and thus estimate the value of air quality.According to the sample in 2015,the mean marginal values of one hazy day (i.e.with excess PM2.5) and one sandy/dusty day (i.e.with excess PM10) are respectively 6.32 yuan and 2.69 yuan.And according to the sample in 2016,the corresponding marginal values are respectively 7.72 yuan and 2.81 yuan.Above estimates are basically stable in the two survey samples,and remain robust in different model specifications,and also keep consistent with results of relevant studies.Consequently,Beijing's hazy and sand-dust weather in 2015 leads to losses respectively worth 23.96 billion yuan and 4.51 billion yuan,namely 1.04％ and 0.20％ of GDP.We further find that the economic values of air quality improvement in 2015 and 2016 are all considerably lower than Beijing's fiscal input on controlling air pollution,indicating that the efficiency of fiscal fund should be further improved.Besides,although income has a significantly positive impact on individual-level air quality value,we do not find progressive tax rate is obviously better than fiat tax rate.关键词
空气质量/选择实验/价值评估/成本效益分析/雾霾Key words
air quality/choice experiment/evaluation/cost benefit analysis/haze分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
全世文..基于选择实验方法的北京市空气质量价值评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(9):46-55,10.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“基于选择实验的北京市雾霾治理公共政策研究”(批准号:16XNB023). （批准号:16XNB023）
