中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(10)：64-73,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170519
工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响
An empirical study on the nonlinear effects of industrial economic structure and economic growth on environmental pollution
摘要
Abstract
The paper introduces the environmental pollution by using the Solow growth model from the input point of the production factor and extends it into the two-sector Solow growth model,to analyze the non-linear effect mechanism of industrial economic structure,economic growth on environmental pollution.Based on the panel data from 30 China provincial cities during 1999 to 2014,it selects SO2 emissions as the level of environmental pollution agent variables,and employs panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to test the non-linear effects and regional difference between the industrial economic structure and economic growth.The results are as follows:first,output and pollution emissions of the industrial sector are on the rise as the process of industrialization accelerates.But the diminishing law of capital marginal revenue makes this growth trend gradually weakened,eventually leading to economic growth and environmental pollution growth tending to the steady state.When the pollution growth rate is reduced to negative,the impact of economic growth on environmental pollution will be from positive to negative.The empirical evidence shows that industrial economic structure,economic growth and SO2 emissions have a significant output level threshold effect in China.As the level of economic output transitions from a low zone to a high zone,the impact of economic growth on SO2 emissions is shifted from positive effect to negative emission reduction.However,the industrial economic structure shows a positive effect on SO2 emission.It can be seen that industrial economic structure and economic growth have significant nonlinear effect on SO2 emission.In addition,the research suggests that there are significant regional differences in the impact of industrial economic structure and economic growth on SO2 emissions.The relationship between economic growth and SO2 emission emerges significant inverted'U'curve in the eastern region,but displays a gradual enhancement of the role in the central and western regions.Economic structure has the greatest impact on the SO2 emission in the central region,followed by the west and the weakest in the east.The study also shows that the level of emission reduction technology and the increase in investment in environmental management have a deterrent effect on SO2 pollution emissions,and the increase in energy investment has accelerated SO2 emissions.In the future economic development,we should abandon the traditional 'high input,high consumption'of the industrialization model.At the same time,the government needs to implement innovation management,improve environmental protection legislation,and encourage enterprises to develop environmental pollution control technology.To avoid the cost of environmental capacity transition,the local government should pursue the high quality and sustainable development mode of the industrial economy.关键词
工业经济结构/经济增长/环境污染/非线性影响/索洛增长模型Key words
industrial economic structure/economic growth/environmental pollution/non-linear effects/Solow growth model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
金春雨,吴安兵..工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):64-73,10.基金项目
吉林大学哲学社会科学研究重大课题培育项目“创新驱动发展与国家创新体系建设研究”(批准号:2015ZDPY09). （批准号:2015ZDPY09）
