中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(10)：84-93,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170609
中国碳排放强度的时空演进及跃迁机制
Research on spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emission intensity and its transition mechanism in China
摘要
Abstract
In face of the crisis of survival and the complicated situations of environmental governance both caused by climate changes,the key solution to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions is to study the dynamic monitoring and early warning control of the spatiotemporal evolution of the carbon intensity in China.This paper estimated the spatial panel data of the carbon intensity in 30 provinces in China during 1997-2015,and did spatial statistical analysis of the spatial correlation,agglomeration characteristics and space-time transition of the carbon intensity by the means of exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA).It also adopted quantile regression and the space-time transition nested models to reveal the spatiotemporal transition mechanism of the carbon intensity in the Chinese provinces under the dual functions of time and space.The results show that:①The carbon intensity of the 30 provinces in China is not completely random in the spatial and temporal distribution.There are distinct spatial correlation characteristics between the carbon intensity of the provinces,and the change trend of the carbon intensity in the various provinces is affected by that in the adjacent provinces.The carbon intensity among provinces embodies the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics,both'agglomeration'and'differentiation'in the spatial distribution.②The spatial agglomeration of the carbon intensity in China is on the increase,with high solidification and low liquidity.The stability of the 10 provinces with high carbon intensity will critically restrict the overall transition of carbon intensity in China.In the contrast,the transition of related provinces will critically drive the overall transition of carbon intensity in China.③There are driving modes and control modes of the space-time transition in the process of spatial agglomeration of the carbon intensity in the different provinces.The quantile regression model can well explain the driving mechanism caused by different driving factors in the space-time transition of carbon intensity.There are strong nesting between the quantile of the driving factors and the different types of space-time transition about the carbon intensity in the different stages of the response.④ According to the results of carbon intensity evolution and transition mechanism in the different provinces,we should put forward further different control measures to reduce the carbon emissions,such as strengthening the effective monitoring and management of key provincial carbon intensity and further restricting the carbon emissions.关键词
碳排放强度/时空格局演进/探索性时空分析/驱动因素/跃迁机制Key words
carbon emission intensity/temporal spatial pattern evolution/exploratory temporal and spatial analysis/driving factors/transition mechanism分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵桂梅,赵桂芹,陈丽珍,孙华平..中国碳排放强度的时空演进及跃迁机制[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):84-93,10.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学规划项目“贸易限制措施对我国战略性新兴产业的冲击效应及其演化机理与防范研究”(批准号:15YJA790006) （批准号:15YJA790006）
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于全球价值链知识溢出的中国区域高碳产业低碳化转型路径研究”(批准号:71774071) （批准号:71774071）
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目“基于复杂适应系统的我国区域产业结构调整的关键因素与引导策略研究”(批准号:KYZZ_0293). （批准号:KYZZ_0293）
