中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(10)：115-121,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170421
京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究
Study on the changes in carbon intensity and driving factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
摘要
Abstract
Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model and the Attribution analysis are introduced to study the changes in greenhouse gas emission intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.It analyzes data from the year 1996 to 2014 based on industrial segmentation.The emission intensity is decomposed into three factors:structure,energy intensity and emission factor.Based on the decomposition results,the attribution analysis is applied to assess the contribution that each individual economic sector makes in a quantitative way.Results indicate that the emission intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei decreased by 23.05％ in total from 1996 to 2014.Energy intensity was the most important factor responsible for the decrease,accounting for-61.18％,in which the industrial sector takes up the most,followed by transportation sector and commercial & service sector.However,the agricultural sector contributes to the decrease in emission intensity through energy structure adjustment by 3.09％.Carbon emission contributed by 60.47％ during the years from 1996 to 2014,remaining key factor for the increase in greenhouse gas density,which shows the poor energy structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The industrial structure results in the increase in emission intensity by 23.53％.The industrial sector is most to be blamed,which indicated the failure of the policies such as adjustment in industrial products export tax rebates rates.The emission factor raised the emission intensity by 43.85％,mainly relying on the industrial sector.Based on the results,the effectiveness of related policies was evaluated,including'Differential Electricity Pricing Policy','Top 1000 Enterprises Energy Saving Program','10 Key Energy Saving Projects Program'and'Adjusting Export Tax Rebating Rate of Some Commodities'.Furthermore,the policies of energy intensity,industrial structure and emission factor on each economic sector should be implemented to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions.关键词
京津冀地区/温室气体排放强度/LMDI-Attribution/节能项目/阶梯电价Key words
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei/greenhouse gas emission intensity/LMDI-attribution/energy-saving programs/differential electricity price分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王开,傅利平..京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):115-121,7.基金项目
国家社科基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下京津冀产业集群转型升级研究”(批准号:15AGL024). （批准号:15AGL024）
