中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(10)：131-140,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170444
中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估
Scene prediction of carbon emission peak and emission reduction potential estimation in Chinese industry
摘要
Abstract
Achieving the peak carbon emissions in 2030 is not only a solemn commitment that China made to the international community for coping with global climate change,but also an inevitable choice for China's future economic restructuring and sustainable development.Based on China's macroeconomic goal of achieving peak carbon emissions in 2030,this paper takes Chinese industry,which is China's major division of carbon emissions,as the research object.First,it uses the extended STIRPAT Model to make the scene prediction for the carbon emission peak of Chinese industry and its nine sectors.And then based on the dual perspective of equity and efficiency,it evaluates the potential for emission reduction of each industrial sectors.The results show that:①Only the low-carbon scenario and the 2th emission-reduction-scenario could achieve the 2030 peak carbon emissions in China,and the low-carbon scenario is the best development mode for Chinese industry,because its peak time is the earliest (by 2030) and the peak is the lowest (140.43 billion t).However,the radical-emission scenario is the worst development mode,as the peak time in this model is the latest (by 2036) and the peak is also the highest (150.09 billion t).②The optimal peak scenario of carbon emissions in each industrial sectors is quite different.The building materials manufacturing industry and the textile manufacturing industry can reach the peak in advance,so it is better to take the lead in such sub-industries to implement the peak management measures to enable other industries to reach the peak one after another.③The most potential emission reduction industry is oil manufacturing,followed by the power industry.These two industries that have greater emission reduction potential should be the focus of the national energy-saving emission reduction.④ Based on the differences in equity and efficiency,the nine industrial sectors are divided into four categories.Among them,the petroleum industry,the iron and steel industry,and the electric power industry belong to the'high-efficiency & high-equity'type;the chemical industry and the building materials manufacturing industry belong to the'low-efficiency & high-equity'type;the mining industry belongs to the'high-efficiency & low-equity'type;the textile industry,the light industry,and the machinery manufacturing industry belong to the'low-efficiency & low-equity'type.So Chinese government should develop appropriate emission reduction strategies for different types of industries,making sure that the emphasis on emission reduction has focused on its most potential areas.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations to achieve the peak management of China's industrial carbon emissions.关键词
工业/碳排放达峰/STIRPAT模型/情景分析/减排潜力Key words
industry/carbon emission peak/STIRPAT Model/scene analysis/emission reduction potential分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王勇,毕莹,王恩东..中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):131-140,10.基金项目
中国博士后科研基金项目“中国碳排放达峰的情景预测、路径规划与经济影响研究”(批准号:2016M601318) （批准号:2016M601318）
辽宁省教育厅科研平台项目“中国对外贸易隐含碳排放及其外贸结构调整研究”(批准号:LN2016JD020) （批准号:LN2016JD020）
国家自然科学基金项目“贸易产品消耗的全口径水资源:区域评估、影响因素及流动特征”(批准号:71573034) （批准号:71573034）
国家社科基金重大项目“社会主义与市场经济深度融合研究”(批准号:2015YZD08) （批准号:2015YZD08）
国家社科基金青年项目“中国卫生卫星账户体系的构建与创新研究”(批准号:14CTJ003). （批准号:14CTJ003）
