中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(10)：149-158,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170438
中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算
Returns on capital in China: a new calculation on the basis of the consideration of the costs carbon emissions
摘要
Abstract
Researh methods:It is not only accord with the new concept of green development,but also the important basis to judge the sustainability of economic growth.Using the logarithmic production function to estimate the shadow price of carbon emissions in 1960-2014;Using the Hall-Jorgenson rent formula to calculate the evolutionary trend of the MPK in China.The new research on the returns on capital overcomes the overestimation caused by ignoring the bad output,and the estimation result is more scientific and reliable.The study found that:(1) The shadow price of carbon emissions in China rose from 56.34 yuan per ton in 1960 to 1651.69 yuan per ton in 2011,and according to the calculation of the shadow price,the costs to reduce carbon emission accounted for 31％ of GDP annually (2) Without the consideration the cost of reduction of carbon emission reduction,the trend of the rate of the return to capital can be divided into three stages.The first phase is from 1952 to1983,the return on capital gradually declined in the high volatility.The second stage is from 1984 to 2010,the underlying the return on capital remained stable.The third stage began from 2011,this stage China return on capital has a stepped down trend,especially in 2012-2014 years,the return on capital after taxes has been difficult to compensating for the opportunity cost of company investment;(3) Considering the cost of carbon emission reduction will lead to the return on capital dropped by an average of about 12％.The return on capital from 1960 to 1975 showed a downward trend,and remained stable from 1976 to 2008,the average rate of the return on capital was 15.2％.After 2009,the return on capital showed a downward trend year by year,the estimated value in 2014 is-1％.This paper only considers the cost of carbon emissions.If we consider the cost such as sulfur dioxide emissions,waste water and solid waste emissions,the estimating of the return on green capital value will be lower.Policy suggestion:Under the current economic situation,we should implement incentive technology innovation and tax reducing policy(especially production tax) to curb the declining trend of the return on capital.In addition,we need to adopt environmental regulation policy step by step,and realize gradually the internalization of external cost of enterprise environment.关键词
碳减排成本/资本回报率/影子价格Key words
the cost of carbon emissions reduction/the rate of returns on capital/shadow price分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
曾先峰,杨柳..中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):149-158,10.基金项目
陕西省软科学研究计划重点项目“陕西省生态环境修复与治理研究”(批准号:2015KRZ006) （批准号:2015KRZ006）
陕西省软科学研究计划项目“智能电网条件下西安市居民家庭用户分终端电力需求侧管理的成本收益研究”(批准号:2015KRM143). （批准号:2015KRM143）
