中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(10)：159-167,9.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170452
碳价格对中国工业外商直接投资的潜在影响
Potential influence of carbon price on China's industrial inward FDI
摘要
Abstract
As an important grasp of Chinese market-oriented emission reduction policy in the future,China will establish a national carbon trading market in 2017.Through adding carbon prices,carbon trading market will influence industrial production costs.Therefore,how do carbon prices affect China's industrial inward FDI? Is it useful to optimize industrialstructure of inward FDI? These are the focus points of this paper.To overcome the problem of insufficient carbon data,this paper constructs the Mapping Carbon Pricing with prices of five types of resources,and uses the data of 36 industries from 1999 to 2013 to calculate the influence of energy cost and other factors on FDI relative scale and absolute scale.Then,it calculates the counter-factual potential effect of different carbon prices on FDI of Chinese industry.Empirical results contain three aspects.First,the industrial heterogeneity of Mapping Carbon Pricing is due to the different industrial energy consumption structures.Second,energy cost does not have significantly negative impacts on FDI.And there are obvious differences on the effect of energy cost on Chinese FDI relative scale and absolute scale between high and non-high pollution and energy-consumption industries.Third,carbon price will have significant impacts on Chinese industrial FDI relative or absolute scale and industrial structure.The effect is more significant on FDI absolute scale of high pollution and energyconsumption industries.For example,when carbon price is 50 yuan,the relative scale of FDI accumulatively reduces 2％-7％ and the absolute scale of FDI accumulatively reduces 3％-13％ in the high energy-consumption industries.However,the relative scale of FDI accumulatively increases 1.5％-3％ and the absolute scale of FDI accumulatively increases 0.1％-0.3％ in the non-high energy-consumption industries.The results indicate that the establishment of national carbon market will not have significantly negative influence on Chinese industrial inward FDI,but it can promote the non-high energy consuming industries FDI inflow,decrease the high energy consuming industries FDI inflow and optimize FDI industrial structures.关键词
碳价格/碳价格映射/能源成本/FDI行业结构Key words
carbon price/mapping carbon pricing/energy cost/FDI industrial structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王班班,吴维..碳价格对中国工业外商直接投资的潜在影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):159-167,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于碳价格映射的中国工业能源结构优化研究”(批准号:71503087). （批准号:71503087）
