北京林业大学学报2017，Vol.39Issue(10)：62-69,8.DOI:10.13332/j.1000-1522.20170035
水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析
Population life table and time sequence prediction of Alnus sibirica
摘要
Abstract
Based on the population life table and survival analysis theory, the population static life table of Alnus sibirica was compiled by spatial sequence instead of time method and homogenization technique, which replace the age structure with tree diameter structure. And the population loss rate curve, survival curve, death curve, survival function curve and time series forecasting chart were drawn to analyze the population dynamics. The results illustrated that the survival curve of Alnus sibirica was likely to the type of Deevey-Ⅱ. The survival curve, mortality rate and extinction rate curve and four survival functions of Alnus sibirica population showed that the characteristics of this population were stable in early age period, fluctuant in middle age period, then recessionary in old age period. The time series analysis showed that the population quantity tended to decrease with the age increased in same time curve, meanwhile, the number of juvenile population decreased gradually and the proportion of individuals in middle and old age period increased gradually over time. The population has a poor natural regeneration ability, and the population will tend to decline under natural conditions.关键词
水冬瓜赤杨/种群生命表/时间序列分析Key words
Alnus sibirica/population life table/time sequence analysis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘丹,刘士玲,郭忠玲,崔晓阳,范春楠..水冬瓜赤杨种群生命表与时间序列分析[J].北京林业大学学报,2017,39(10):62-69,8.基金项目
吉林省森工集团项目 (2013-22)、科技部科技基础性工作专项(2007FY110400). （2013-22）
