电力建设2017，Vol.38Issue(11)：144-150,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7229.2017.11.019
基于拟蒙特卡洛的半不变量法概率潮流计算
Quasi Monte Carlo Based Cumulant Method for Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation
栗然 1范航 1张凡 1靳保源1
作者信息
- 1. 新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学) ,河北省保定市071003
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
With the increasing penetration of wind sources, not only the uncertainty of wind power output, but also the correlation of wind power output due to wind speed correlations among adjacent wind farms should be considered in probabilistic load flow ( PLF) methods. In allusion to the correlation and large fluctuation range of wind power output, this paper proposes a quasi Monte Carlo ( QMC ) based cumulant method of PLF considering the correlation between input variables. QMC based on Nataf transformation is used to generate wind power output samples with correlation, and the cumulant method is used to calculate PLF at each sample point. With the state variables satisfying the normal distribution at each sample point, the final probability distributions are obtained by integrating all normal distributions according to the total probability formula. The comparative tests in the IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the proposed method has high computational precision under the small sampling size, and can obtain the probability distribution of the system state variables accurately.关键词
概率潮流/半不变量法/拟蒙特卡洛/风电并网Key words
probabilistic load flow/cumulant method/quasi Monte Carlo/wind power integration分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
栗然,范航,张凡,靳保源..基于拟蒙特卡洛的半不变量法概率潮流计算[J].电力建设,2017,38(11):144-150,7.
