电力系统自动化2017，Vol.41Issue(18)：118-123,136,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161228007
计及样本容量合理性的风电功率预测考核算法
Assessment Algorithm for Wind Power Prediction Considering Rationality of Sample Size
葛立青 1刘青红 1王建锋 1章叶青 1王言国 1张衡1
作者信息
- 1. 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司,江苏省南京市211102
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
On the basis that the wind power prediction error obeys normal distribution,an algorithm for calculating the minimum sample size with the given confidence level and maximum permissible error is proposed,as is a method of computing the confidence level under the condition of the given error range and sample size.Then an analysis is carried out according to the typical significance level and the error range.It is demonstrated that the statistical confidence level of the sample is low when the sample size is small,which cannot represent the overall data.Finally,an assessment algorithm for wind power prediction is proposed by taking into account the rationality of sample size of the day-ahead wind power prediction accuracy rate.The actual examples show that the proposed method is more scientific and reasonable,avoiding unreasonable assessment fines.关键词
风功率预测/考核/样本统计/置信水平/准确率Key words
wind power prediction/assessment/sample statistics/confidence level/accuracy引用本文复制引用
葛立青,刘青红,王建锋,章叶青,王言国,张衡..计及样本容量合理性的风电功率预测考核算法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(18):118-123,136,7.
