电力系统自动化2017，Vol.41Issue(18)：167-175,9.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160914002
风电功率概率预测方法及展望
Methods and Prospects for Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power
摘要
Abstract
Prediction intervals or distribution functions of wind power in the future can be provided through probabilistic forecasting of wind power.Relevant research in China is still at the early stage.This paper gives a comprehensive review on the basic approaches,typical patterns and key problems in probabilistic forecasting of wind power.Firstly,the definition of probabilistic forecasting is presented and its applicable problems are summarized.Secondly,two different classification methods are introduced:conditional classification method and parametric classification method.New algorithms and evaluation indices used in probabilistic forecasting are also described.Finally,according to the-state of the-art of probabilistic forecasting,the shortcomings of error analysis and the insufficiency of probabilistic forecasting in combining with the power system,the future key issues and the research content which needs further exploration are summarized.关键词
风电功率预测/概率预测/不确定性/预测误差建模Key words
wind power forecasting/probabilistic forecasting/uncertainty/modeling of forecasting error引用本文复制引用
吴问足,乔颖,鲁宗相,汪宁渤,周强..风电功率概率预测方法及展望[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(18):167-175,9.基金项目
This work is supported by the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51190101),National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2016YFB0900101) and State Grid Corporation of China (No.522727160002).国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190101) （No.51190101）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0900101) （2016YFB0900101）
国家电网公司科技项目(522727160002). （522727160002）
