干旱区地理2017，Vol.40Issue(5)：967-978,12.
气候变化对秦岭北坡径流过程的影响机制研究——以灞河流域为例
Influencing mechanisms of climate change on runoff process in the north slope of Qinling Mountains: A case of the Bahe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Runoff process is not only directly affected by local rainfall and temperature,but also closely related to southern-northern hemispheric teleconnections,such as Arctic Oscillation,Antarctic Oscillation,Southern Oscillation,E1 Nino,etc.Therefore,there is a great significance to investigate the influencing mechanisms of climate change on runoff process.Qinling Mountains is the dividing line between north and south China,which is also a hot spot of climate change around the world.Therefore,taking the Bahe River Basin in the north of Qinling Mountains as study area,this paper aims to reveal influencing mechanisms of climate change on runoff process,especially changes in climate factors how to lingeringly affect runoff change,and further provide more theoretical foundation of teleconnections for hydrograph forecast.In order to achieve this,a variety of integrated methods including anomaly analysis,continuous wavelet transform,cross wavelet transform,wavelet coherence and lag correlation were applied to complete multi-time scale analysis between runoff and meteorological factors including temperature,precipitation,AOI,SOI,sunspot number and MEI.Finally,we conducted the test of delayed correlation analysis.The results show that linear trend estimation demonstrates hydrometeorological factors presented a different trend of increasing or decreasing from 1959 to 2014 in the Bahe River Basin.Over the past 56 years,climate change presented a trend of warm and dry,which had a profound influence on runoff process in this basin.There were 1 to 4 significant (P＜0.05) periods.It is worth noting that the 8-11.4 a significant period of sunspots number distinctly affected the continuous wavelet energy spectrum of annual average SOI and MEI at the same time scale,because their energy spectrums on the frequency band all showed a characteristic of zonal distribution.The method of combining cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis has unique advantages in identifying resonant period,phase angle relationship,wet or dry period,lag,relevance,mutability and significance testing between hydrological and meteorological factors.Lag correlation analysis shows that the influence of different meteorological factors on the runoff had some differences in terms of correlation and time lag mechanisms.Precipitation in the same period was the key controlling factor of runoff formation and change,however,annual average sunspot number affected the runoff weakly.When average monthly flow lags monthly AOI for 0 months or 8-9 months,the absolute value of correlation coefficient will reach the maximum;when average monthly flow lags monthly SOI for 2 months or 7-8 months,or lags monthly MEI for 6-8 months,the maximum absolute value of correlation coefficient will also appear.关键词
气候变化/径流过程/交叉小波变换/小波相干/时滞相关性/秦岭Key words
climate change/runoff process/cross wavelet transform/wavelet coherence/lag correlation/Qinling Mountains分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡胜,邱海军,宋进喜,马舒悦,杨冬冬,裴艳茜,杨文璐,曹明明..气候变化对秦岭北坡径流过程的影响机制研究——以灞河流域为例[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(5):967-978,12.基金项目
中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(131551KYSB20160002) （131551KYSB20160002）
陕西省重点科技创新团队计划项目(2014KCT-27) （2014KCT-27）
