气象2017，Vol.43Issue(8)：987-997,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.08.009
基于形状匹配的雷达临近预报误差评价计算方法
A Novel Method of Error Evaluation for Radar Nowcasting Based on Shape Matching
摘要
Abstract
The relatively conventional pattern forecast method of local short-time rainfall is mainly based on satellite images and radar echo extrapolation,but it is also worth finding a better method which can make good use of ground observation data to effectively test the radar forecast products.In the actual weather forecast,rainfall is often characteristiced regional and planar spatial distribution.So the test about shape of rainfall area is more important and more significant.In order to solve the problem in shape test with variety of difficulties and characteristics.This paper proposed a comprehensive evaluating method of 0-3 h QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) radar rainfall forecast and quantitative indexes of shape test.We also did some experiments including grading test and error analysis on a typical radar forecast of continuous raining process in Guangdong Province in 08:30 11:24 BT 22 April 2016.To some extent,this method also has a good solution of poor data quality and accuracy control in temporal and spatial scale.The TSshape,PODshape,FARshape,Ratiop,Ratiot,Jaccard of a half hour and 1 h radar rainfall forecast shape test are above40％,above40％,below30％,above40％,above80％,above 40％ respectively.The experimental results reflect the effect of radar rainfall forecast well and show that the indexes of shape test are basically consistent with conventional quantitative indexes.关键词
雷达/降雨/插值/形状检验/质量控制Key words
radar/rainfall/interpolation/shape test/quality control分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曹春燕,陈凯,陈元昭,刘军,陈劲松,贺佳佳,陈训来..基于形状匹配的雷达临近预报误差评价计算方法[J].气象,2017,43(8):987-997,11.基金项目
广东省科技厅项目(2014A020218014和2016A020223016)共同资助 （2014A020218014和2016A020223016）
