气象2017，Vol.43Issue(9)：1110-1116,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.09.008
基于集合预报和支持向量机的中期强降雨集成预报试验
The Medium-Term Multi-Model Integration Forecast Experimentation for Heavy Rain Based on Support Vector Machine
摘要
Abstract
This paper establishes a multi-mode integrated dynamic-statistical objective forecast model (SVM multi-model integration forecast) based on the European Centres for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Center (NCEP) ensemble forecast data and support vector machine regression method,then carries out a forecast test for heavy rain process that occurred in the Huaihe River Basin and its south of China during the period from May to September in 2012,and finally the forecast results are compared with the control forecast and ensemble average forecast of ECMWF.The results show that in the medium-term forecasting time-scale (4-7 days),the SVM multi-model integrated forecast method is the best for forecasting heavy rain compared with the control forecast of the ECMWF and the ensemble average forecast during the period from May to September in 2012.Especially for the accuracy of rainstorm forecasting,it is more effective,and the advantage is that its forecast of the distribution and intensity of heavy rain is closer to the observation.关键词
SVM-多模式集成/强降雨/中期预报Key words
SVM multi-model integration/heavy rain/medium-term forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄威,牛若芸..基于集合预报和支持向量机的中期强降雨集成预报试验[J].气象,2017,43(9):1110-1116,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB417204)、国家科技支撑计划(2015BAC03B02)和国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402702)共同助资 （973计划）
