气象2017，Vol.43Issue(9)：1117-1129,13.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.09.009
基于水土耦合机制的流域滑坡预报研究
Landslides Forecasting Using a Physically-Based, Coupled Hydrological-Geotechnical Framework
摘要
Abstract
Rainfall induced landslide disasters,which involve hydrological processes and geotechnical processes,are a complex prediction problem.In this study,a coupled hydrological-geotechnical model called CRESLIDE (Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) was applied for landslides forecasting in the Yuehe River Basin.The hourly gridded precipitation data as the input of the CRESLIDE model were calculated using the inverse-distance weighted interpolation method from reported values by encryption rainfall stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA).By utilizing GIS,DEM and RS technology,the characteristic information of the test basin was extracted.The CREST distributed hydrological model was applied for simulating hydrological processes and computing the key intermediate variables as forcings of the SLIDE model to forecast rainfall-induced landslide events.We chose the Yuehe River Basin,located in the south of Shaanxi Province,as the test region for landslide forecasting.The results show that the CRESLIDE model has a generally good reliability to accurately predict occurrence of landslides (location and timing).Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the CRESLIDE model perform well with a high specificity (87.8％) and a reasonably good sensitivity (52.9％).Coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework like the CRESLIDE model is based on physical processes and has a more realistic representation of hydrological processes,so this type of model is very useful for landslide prediction and early warning.This study provides valuable information and insight for similar studies in this field.关键词
滑坡预报/水土耦合/CRESLIDE模型/CREST模型/月河Key words
landslides forecasting/coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework/the CRESLIDE model/the CREST model/Yuehe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
包红军,张珂,晁丽君,赵晓萌,刘艳辉,王晟,刘凑华..基于水土耦合机制的流域滑坡预报研究[J].气象,2017,43(9):1117-1129,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51509043,C1775111)、国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402702、2016YFC0402701)、中国气象局首批青年英才计划(2014-2017)、中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015B28514)、水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室基金(20165042212)、中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)06]和国家气象中心水文气象预报团队项目共同资助 （51509043,C1775111）
