水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(5)：691-701,11.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.05.006
基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法
Computational methods of drought return periods based on the regional agricultural water consumption
摘要
Abstract
In order to research the appearance of agricultural drought under the actual water projects, the computa-tional method for the return periods of drought events, based on the regional agricultural water consumption, is presen-ted in this study. Through the drought index establishment of the anomalous percentages of agricultural water consump-tion(WA), on the basis of drought events recognized by the drought index PA of precipitation anomalous percentages, the drought characteristic variable of the severity and duration for drought events based on WA were extracted. Mean-while, according to the frequency distribution curves FS( x) of drought severity and the frequency distribution curves FD( x) of drought duration obtained with PA as the drought index, the return periods T of drought events based on WA were computed by use of the simplified method of Copula. Finally, combined with the return periods T0 of drought e-vents based on PA, the formula of relationship between T and T0 was obtained through the analysis of regression. The method was applied into Bozhou city as the exemplary region for the severest influence from the drought, and the em-pirical relation between T and T0 was built as per all the drought events from 1975 to 2007. The results indicate:com-pared with T0 , the severity of drought events judged by T is more consistent with the reality;there is an essential cor-relation between T0 and T, and the regression equation of T can be accepted as the simple estimation formula of return periods T of drought events when it comes to actual drought resistance ability of one region, and is valuable for popu-larized application in the process of drought mitigation and loss reduction of one region.关键词
农业干旱/干旱重现期/频率分析/农业用水量/Copula函数/抗旱能力/亳州市Key words
agricultural drought/return periods of drought/frequency analysis/agricultural water consumption/Copula function/drought resistance ability/Bozhou city分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张宇亮,蒋尚明,金菊良,吴志勇,周玉良..基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J].水科学进展,2017,28(5):691-701,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目( 51579059 （）
51409002) The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( No. 51579059 （）
No. 51409002) . （）
