西安工程大学学报2017，Vol.31Issue(5)：690-694,705,6.DOI:10.13338/j.issn.1674-649x.2017.05.015
蒙特卡洛模拟法在房地产开发风险分析中的应用
Application of Monte Carlo simulation method in risk analysis of real estate development
摘要
Abstract
Based on the probability analysis,Monte Carlo simulation method is used to quanti-tatively analyze and simulate the development cost and sales income of two major uncertain risk variables,the impact of the two risk factors on project economic indicators and the effect of the single risk factors on project economic indicators are simulated,in hopes of finding the impact of each risk variable on real estate development.The result shows that the project risk is small when the development cost and the sales revenue are the risk variables at the same time.When the development cost is only the risk variable,the project risk is increased.关键词
房地产开发/蒙特卡洛模拟/风险分析Key words
real estate development/Monte Carlo simulation/risk analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王秋蓉,陈永当..蒙特卡洛模拟法在房地产开发风险分析中的应用[J].西安工程大学学报,2017,31(5):690-694,705,6.基金项目
陕西省科学技术研究项目(2013KRZ21) （2013KRZ21）
中国纺织工业联合会科技项目(2016091) （2016091）
