新疆农业科学2017，Vol.54Issue(9)：1737-1745,9.DOI:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2017.09.021
基于耕地压力指数的新疆粮食安全状况研究
Grain Security of Xinjiang Based on Cropland Pressure Index
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] To study the changing tendency of cultivated land and grain yield in Xinjiang in the past 64 years and forecast the food security situation in Xinjiang in the next 10 years according to the characteristics of cultivated land pressure index,and corresponding countermeasures to ensure grain security in Xinjiang will be put forward.[Method] The minimum per capita arable land area and the cultivated land pressure index model and the GM (1,1) gray prediction model were used to quantitatively analyze the food safety level in Xinjiang.[Result] The minimum per capita arable land area and cultivated land pressure index of Xinjiang increased from 1949 to 2012,and the cultivated land pressure index in the next 10 years would be greater than 1 and showed a significant growth trend.[Conclusion] Xinjiang's food security is unsafe and the future food security situation will become more and more serious.In view of this situation,it is proposed to develop water-saving agriculture,increase agricultural science and technology investment and maintain the amount of cultivated land to ensure food security.关键词
耕地压力指数/粮食安全/灰色预测Key words
cropland pressure index/grain security/gray prediction分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
亚森江·喀哈尔,王敬哲,吕光辉,刘志辉..基于耕地压力指数的新疆粮食安全状况研究[J].新疆农业科学,2017,54(9):1737-1745,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目“干旱区湖泊流域陆面过程及人类活动适应性—以艾比湖为例”(41130531) （41130531）
Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China "Land Surface Process and Adaptability of Human Activities in Lake Basin of Arid Area-Taking Ebinur Lake as an Example" (41130531) （41130531）
