新疆农业科学2017，Vol.54Issue(9)：1756-1764,9.DOI:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2017.09.023
利用区域回归分析法对阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效果再分析
Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] To further evaluate the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Aksu in the hope of analyzing the effect.[Method] In this paper,the method of the regression test of areas was applied,the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after 18 a of the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu were analyzed with annual hailstorm areas data from 1978-2013 in Aksu and Kashi with 1996 as the year of artificial hail suppression.[Result] The results showed that the average annual hail area was reduced 23,802 hm2,and the relative loss rate was 54.5％ after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Aksu.Combined with the agricultural economic data,the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 444,170,000 RMB,annual input and output ratio nearly was 1∶ 10.The statistical significant level highly reached α =0.01.[Conclusion] Therefore,through scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression operations,it is obvious that hail disaster losses reduced and the social and economic benefits are great in Aksu.关键词
人工防雹/区域回归/效果评估Key words
artificial hail suppression/regression test of areas/performance and effect evaluation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李斌,郑博华,史莲梅,朱思华..利用区域回归分析法对阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效果再分析[J].新疆农业科学,2017,54(9):1756-1764,9.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目(GYHY201306047) （气象）
自治区重大专项“新疆吐鲁番哈密地区空中云水资源开发利用” （）
科技支撑项目“新疆绿洲人工防雹减灾效果评估研究”(TUHA201525) （TUHA201525）
China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(GYHY201306047) （GYHY201306047）
Scientific and Technological Support Program "Evaluation and study on the effect of hail suppression and disaster reduction in oasis region in Xinjiang" of Autonomous Region Major Special Project "Development and utilization of aerial cloud water resources in Tulufan and Hami in Xinjiang" (TUHA201525) （TUHA201525）
