中北大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.38Issue(5)：536-543,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-3193.2017.05.006
以兴安盟为例的布病传播及风险分析
The Spread and Risk Analysis of Brucellosis Taking Hinggan League as an Example
摘要
Abstract
Brucellosis In Hinggan League presents characteristics of seasonal human cases and sheep mi-gration,bacteria diffusion between regions.Based on this,a periodic sub-regional paths dynamic sprea-ding model was established.Dynamic characteristic of the model was analyzed,it include the solution of transmission threshold and the proof about global stability of the disease-free periodic solution.Besides, the rationality of the model was confirmed by data fitting about human cases,the positive rate of sheep brucellosis was simultaneously obtained.Finally,with the help of geographic information system (Arc-GIS),risk charts of Hinggan League sheep brucellosis were shown,and precaution and control meas-ures were assessed.The simulation results illustrate that increasing the immunization coverage rate and controlling the sheep transportation between plaques can effectively restrain brucellosis spread.关键词
布病/动力学模型/周期性/羊群调运/ArcGISKey words
Brucellosis/dynamical model/periodicity/sheep migration/geographic information system (ArcGIS)分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
杨新爱,邓明明..以兴安盟为例的布病传播及风险分析[J].中北大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,38(5):536-543,8.基金项目
山西省软科学基金项目(2017041016-1) （2017041016-1）
