化工学报2017，Vol.68Issue(11)：4288-4300,13.DOI:10.11949/j.issn.0438-1157.20170158
市场不确定条件下煤制烯烃技术经济分析方法
Techno-economic analysis method of coal to olefins process with market uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
A techno-economic analysis method for modern coal chemical projects under the condition of market uncertainty was established. With financial internal rate of return, payback period of investment, financial net present value, after-tax profits and the CO2 emissions per unit of after-tax profit of coal to olefins investment project as the main objective indicators, and with polyolefin price, coal price, construction investment and carbon tax rate as four variables characterizing market uncertainty, the techno-economic analysis models of coal to olefins were established. Based on these models, the surface graphs and contour graphs of the simulated equations were drew. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were further carried out. Sensitivity analysis shows that the influence of polyolefin price and coal price changes on each objective indicator is most remarkable. The economy of coal to olefins technology and the influence of various risk factors on the objective indicators under the condition of market uncertainty were quantitatively analyzed using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that coal to olefins project is still profitable under the condition of market downturn, when polyolefin prices are 6000—8000 CNY·t?1, and coal prices are 100—300 CNY·t?1.关键词
煤制烯烃/技术经济分析/市场不确定性/碳税/试验设计/模型/MonteCarlo模拟Key words
coal to olefins/techno-economic analysis/market uncertainty/carbon tax/experimental design/model/Monte Carlo simulation分类
化学化工引用本文复制引用
张媛媛,王永刚,田亚峻,谢克昌..市场不确定条件下煤制烯烃技术经济分析方法[J].化工学报,2017,68(11):4288-4300,13.基金项目
中国工程院重大咨询项目"碳约束条件下我国能源结构优化研究"(2016-ZD-07)、"中国工程科技知识中心建设——能源专业知识服务系统"(CKCEST-2017-2-4). supported by the Chinese Academy of Engineering Major Consulting Project(2016-ZD-07,CKCEST-2017-2-4). （2016-ZD-07）
