水产学报2017，Vol.41Issue(11)：1744-1755,12.DOI:10.11964/jfc.20170510838
基于BP神经网络模型的福建海域赤潮预报方法研究
Red tide forecasting model based on BP neural network in Fujian sea area
摘要
Abstract
Red tide is one of marine disasters.It often causes great harm to fishery production and human life.Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the early warning and forecast of red tide.However because the formation of red tide is very complex, it is very difficult to predict red tide.At home and abroad, there have been a lot of reports about the prediction and forecast of red tide.Different scholars have discussed the reasons for the formation of red tide using different research methods.In this study, 219 red tides data were collected in Fujian sea area from 2000 to 2016.The nonlinear relationship between the 5 meteorological factors, such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and sunshine, was established by using the BP neural network model.First of all, the total collected data of red tide and the corresponding meteorological data were divided into 3 sea areas data called Eastern, Central and South Fujian sea areas, according to their geographical locations, then the three groups of data were input into the model for it to learn and train.The results show that: 1) the 53 training samples in eastern Fujian sea area gave 45 correct predictions, the correct rate was 84.91%, and the 3 simulated prediction samples in the same area were all correct.2) in 69 training samples of central Fujian sea area, 58 predictions were correct, the accuracy rate was 84.06%, and the 4 simulation predictions were all correct.3) in 85 training samples in south Fujian sea area, 63 prediction results were correct, and the correct rate was 74.12%, and the 5 simulation samples were all correct.All the expected prediction results achieved the desired goals.Therefore, it is feasible to predict the occurrence of red tide based on the BP neural network model, which can provide a new way to forecast the red tide.关键词
BP神经网络模型/赤潮/预报/福建海区Key words
BP neural network model/red tide/forecast/Fujian sea area分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
苏新红,金丰军,杨奇志,陈火荣,俞秀霞,李雪丁,郭民权,刘秋凤,罗娟..基于BP神经网络模型的福建海域赤潮预报方法研究[J].水产学报,2017,41(11):1744-1755,12.基金项目
福建省海洋与渔业结构调整专项(2015) （2015）
福建省海洋与渔业厅科技外经外事处:基于BP神经网络的海区赤潮预警预报模型研究(闽海渔科2015005) Special Funds for the Adjustment of Industrial Structure of Marine and Fishery in Fujian (2015) （闽海渔科2015005）
Project of Based on BP Neural Network Model of Red Tide Forecast in the Fujian Sea Area (MinHai Yuke 2015005) supported by Office of the Science and Technology and Foreign Affairs, Fujian Provincial Department of Ocean and Fishery （MinHai Yuke 2015005）
