郑州大学学报（理学版）2017，Vol.49Issue(4)：126-131,6.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6841.2017052
基于SD双要素模型的长春市水资源人口承载力动态模拟
Dynamic Simulation of Population Carrying Capacity of Urban Water Resource of Changchun Based on System Dynamics and Two Dimension Mix Model
摘要
Abstract
The model of population carrying capacity of urban water resources was established based on system dynamics and two dimension ( the quantity of water resources and quality of water environment ) model.Changchun City was selected as an example .The dynamic trend of population carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City was simulated with conditions of different schemes from 2014 to 2030. The results showed that: the quantity of water resources was the key factor to determine the population carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City .In the normal development scheme , the popula-tion carrying capacity of water resources in Changchun City would be overloaded in the future and there would be an increasing tendency of overload .Only by combination of searching for new and saving pres-ent water resources ,the disadvantages of the two separated schemes were remedied .The population carry-ing capacity of water resources in Changchun City could be effectively improved .In the short term by the comprehensive scheme .Moreover ,the population carrying state of water resources would be steady in the future,which could meet the requirements of sustainable development in the region .关键词
水资源/人口承载力/系统动力学Key words
water resource/population carrying capacity/system dynamics分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
吴卫宾,韩锦辉,杨天通,王斯勃,周杨,赵文晋..基于SD双要素模型的长春市水资源人口承载力动态模拟[J].郑州大学学报（理学版）,2017,49(4):126-131,6.基金项目
国家科技重大专项(2012ZX07202-009). （2012ZX07202-009）
