北京大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.53Issue(6)：1099-1107,9.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2017.123
未来气候变化情景下中国北方农牧交错带脆弱性评估
Analysis of Vulnerable Characteristics in Chinese Northern Farming-Pastoral Region Based on Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
摘要
Abstract
Based on the grid data set of temperature and precipitation of China (0.5°×0.5°) and the output of coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) East Asia, including the climate prediction based on RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, the authors simulate and analyze vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region from 1980 to 2100 with temperature, precipitation and maximum near-surface wind speed. The results show that the ecologically vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region increases during 2006-2100, especially after 2050, the increase speed rises rapidly. By the end of 21st century, almost all the Chinese northern farming-pastoral region shows at least obvious vulnerability. Said on the space, the vulnerability is severe from Zhongwei to north of Hohhot, however, it's better in north Great Khingan.关键词
中国北方农牧交错带/脆弱性/区域协同降尺度实验Key words
Chinese northern farming-pastoral region/vulnerability/coordinated regional downscaling experi-ment (CORDEX)分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周一敏,张昂,赵昕奕..未来气候变化情景下中国北方农牧交错带脆弱性评估[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,53(6):1099-1107,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41471073)资助 （41471073）
