热带地理2017，Vol.37Issue(6)：852-861,10.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.003000
东盟与大国贸易联系及其影响因素
Trade Linkages between ASEAN and Great Powers and Their Influencing Factors
摘要
Abstract
Southeast Asia is the key to China's peripheral diplomacy. In "the Belt and Road" construction period,it is meaningful to study on the trade links and influencing factors between ASEAN member states and major world powers. On the one hand, it will help to grasp the changes of international trade forces in Southeast Asia since 2000. And on the other hand, targeting the important influencing factors, China will strengthen the bilateral cooperation with ASEAN to promote more in-depth cooperation in the future. Based on social network analysis and gravity model, this paper analyzes the degree of centralism in the trade network, role similarity of ASEAN and its main trade objects, then discusses the factors that affect the trade between the two sides, such as distance,population, GDP, political system differences, trade agreements, and puts forward some proposals about future trade development between China and ASEAN. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The trade density between ASEAN countries and major powers has been increasing since 2000. Singapore, Malaysia are the bellwethers of ASEAN's foreign trade; 2) Among the major powers, the roles of the United States and China in the trade network are similar, and the probability of their competition in ASEAN trade is also large; 3) ASEAN's trade dependence on China has been rising since 2000, while the economic dependence on the USA and Japan has been relatively reduced; 4) The regional multilateral trade organization can promote the trade between countries, and counteract the hindrance of distance; 5) China should establish more preferential trade policies with ASEAN to enhance bilateral economic dependence, enhance political mutual trust and promote non-governmental exchanges.关键词
贸易网络/贸易依赖/地缘经济/东南亚国家联盟Key words
trade network/interdependence/Geopolitics/Association of Southeast Asian Nations分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王倩,宋涛,梁宜,邹嘉龄..东盟与大国贸易联系及其影响因素[J].热带地理,2017,37(6):852-861,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41701131、41530634、41530751) （41701131、41530634、41530751）
云南省中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心开放课题 （）
