岩土力学2017，Vol.38Issue(11)：3341-3346,6.DOI:10.16285/j.rsm.2017.11.033
相关变量生成算法及边坡可靠度Monte Carlo模拟
Algorithm for generation correlative variables and Monte Carlo simulation of slope reliability
摘要
Abstract
A multivariate distribution model that describes the relevance of variables has a wide range of engineering applications.Based on the multiple linear autoregressive model and the sorting algorithm,a generation algorithm of multidimensional random variable with the specified edge distribution and the specified structure is studied.The algorithm was implemented using MATLAB.The proposed approach,a direct sampling Monte Carlo simulation method,is applied to determine the structural reliability and slope reliability.The problem related to correlative variables,difficult to solve by traditional Carlo Monte simulation,is solved by the proposed method.The numerical analysis shows that this method is reliable in calculation.The method can loosen the idealized restrains of theory model,and realistically reflect the practical problem.Compared the results from first-order second-moment method,it is found that the first-order second-moment method usually gives a high estimation in reliability.Failure probability is sensitive to the distribution type of the variable.Same safety factor maybe correspond to different failure probabilities.The proposed approach can be applied to calculation of complex structural system reliability and to simulation with dependent random variables in other fields.关键词
结构可靠度/自回归模型/随机模拟/安全系数Key words
structural reliability/autoregressive model/random simulation/safety factor分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈将宏,李建林,许晓亮,宛良朋,黄宜胜,邓华锋..相关变量生成算法及边坡可靠度Monte Carlo模拟[J].岩土力学,2017,38(11):3341-3346,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.51439003) （No.51439003）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(No.201401029) （No.201401029）
湖北省自然科学基金(2015CFB545).This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51439003),the Public Welfare Special Scientific Research Project of the China Ministry of Water Resources (201401029) and the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(2015CFB545). （2015CFB545）
