农业环境科学学报2017，Vol.36Issue(10)：2106-2113,8.DOI:10.11654/jaes.2017-0132
中国畜牧业温室气体排放现状及峰值预测
Chinese greenhouse gas emissions from livestock: Trend and predicted peak value
摘要
Abstract
This study was conducted to gain a general understanding of the trend in greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions from livestock and to predict its peak value in China.This study was based on the "Guidelines for the Provincial Inventory of Greenhouse Gas (Trial),2011 ",and the populations of animals in China from 2005 to 2015 were used to calculate the GHG emissions from livestock in China.The animal product protein supply quantity in China,the European Union(EU),and the United States of America(USA) in 2013 were used to predict the peak of GHG emissions in China.Based on these methods,the results showed that:GHG emissions from 2005 to 2015 in China were about 406～452 million tons CO2-eq.The lowest peak point occurred in 2008,while the highest peak point was in 2009.After 2009,the GHG emissions from livestock were relatively stable.In 2015,enteric methane was the GHG most emitted from livestock in China,accounting for 66.61％ of the total,followed by CH4 and N2O emissions from manure,at 18.23％ and 15.16％,respectively.With respect to animal species,ruminants were the main source of GHG emissions (up to 72.44％),followed by pigs and poultry at 19.22％ and 6.81％,respectively.So cattle was the main source of GHG emissions in China,followed by pigs.There were effects of geographical distribution on the amount of GHG emissions in China,where the top 10 provinces in terms of GHG emissions were contiguous.Notably,Henan,Sichuan,Inner Mongolia,Shandong,and Yunnan were the leaders of the country in terms of GHG emissions,and these areas should focus on reducing GHG emissions.In addition,Xinjiang and Tibet should be targeted as important areas for CH4 reduction.As for the peak of GHG emissions from livestock,it will be 489 million tons CO2-eq in 2034 if China reaches the same level of animal product protein supply as the EU,an increase of 8.94％ compared with 2015.The annual growth rate would be 2.90％.Following the same trend,the peak of GHG will be 510 million tons CO2-eq in 2043 if China reaches the same animal products protein supply as the USA,with an increase of 13.53％ compared with 2015 and a 4.32％ increase in annual growth rate.关键词
中国/畜牧业/温室气体/排放峰值/预测Key words
China/livestock/greenhouse gas/emission peak/prediction分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
郭娇,齐德生,张妮娅,孙铝辉,胡荣桂..中国畜牧业温室气体排放现状及峰值预测[J].农业环境科学学报,2017,36(10):2106-2113,8.基金项目
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012020) （2012020）
公益性行业(农业)科研项目(201303145)China Clean Development Mechanism Fund Grant Project (2012020) （农业）
Special Scientific Research Fund of Agriculture Public Welfare Profession of China(201303145) （201303145）
