水利水电技术2017，Vol.48Issue(11)：36-42,7.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2017.11.007
基于IPAT模型的河北省灰水足迹分析及预测
IPAT model-based prediction and analysis on grey water footprint of Hebei Province
摘要
Abstract
Hebei Province,as an important part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei development circle,the problems of water quality and water amount are prominent therein,thus the water quality and water amount in the province are necessary to be studied urgently.Based on the two parts,i.e.agricultural grey water and industrial-domestic grey water,the grey water footprint in Hebei Province from 2004 to 2015 is calculated by taking fertilizer N,fertilizer P and COD as the key pollutants relied upon the maximum allowable capacity of the water environment,and then the grey water footprint caused by the unit production value in 2030 is predicted as well on the basis of this.The result shows that (1) the grey water footprint in Hebei Province in a period of 12 years presents a trend of increasing at first and then decreasing,in which the fertilizer N is the key pollutant of the agricultural grey water footprint with the annual mean increasing rate of 0.87％ along with the continuous increases of both the total amount of chemical fertilizer and the increase of the mean fertilization level;(2) the industrial-domestic grey water footprint generally presents an increasing trend,while decreasing trends are presented in stages.By taking 2011 as the boundary,the grey water footprint in Hebei province is transformed from the domination of the agricultural grey water footprint into the domination of the industrial-domestic grey water footprint,furthermore,the industrial-domestic grey water footprint is strongly correlated to the production value of the third industry;(3) it is found out through the analysis with IPAT model that the sustainabilities of the agricultural grey water footprints of all the other years are poor,besides 2004,2013 and 2015,however,the sustainability of the industrial-domestic grey water footprint during the period from 2004 to 2010 is better than that of the period from 2011 to 2015.If it continuously develops in accordance with the existing level in the future,the grey water footprint caused by unit agricultural production value of Hebei Province is to be decreased to 0.05m3/yuan,while the grey water footprint caused by the unit industrial-domestic production value is to be decreased to 0.006 m3/yuan as well.关键词
灰水足迹/京津冀IPAT模型/农业灰水足迹/工业生活灰水足迹Key words
grey water footprint/Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei IPAT model/agricultural grey water footprint/industrial-domestic grey water footprint分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
姚懿真,杨贵羽,汪林,贾玲,校昱..基于IPAT模型的河北省灰水足迹分析及预测[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(11):36-42,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41401648,71573274) （41401648,71573274）
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0401408,2016YFC0503502) （2016YFC0401408,2016YFC0503502）
