应用生态学报2017，Vol.28Issue(11)：3731-3739,9.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201711.017
基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警
Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1) model
摘要
Abstract
Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination,and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy.Firstly,based on the DPSIR model,the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects,which were driving force,pressure,state,impact and response.Then,by using the improved TOPSIS method,the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed.Lastly,by using the grey GM (1,1) model,the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted.The results indicated that,on the whole,the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014,the warning degree was the "moderate warning".In terms of each subsystem,warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security were on the rise,which evolved from "light warning" to "heavy warning";warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much,and had been in the "moderate warning";warning degree of the response system was on the decline,which changed from "huge warning" to "no warning" during 2001-2014.According to the current development trend,the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020,and the warning degree would turn from "moderate warning" into "light warning",but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.关键词
旅游生态安全/预警/张家界/改进TOPSIS法/灰色GM(1,1)Key words
tourism ecological security/early warning/Zhangjiajie/improved TOPSIS method/grey GM (1,1) model引用本文复制引用
徐美,刘春腊,李丹,钟晓林..基于改进TOPSIS-灰色GM(1,1)模型的张家界市旅游生态安全动态预警[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(11):3731-3739,9.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金项目(41601143)、湖南省自然科学基金项目(2015JJ3179)、湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(15C1447) 、2016年度湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会一般课题项目(XSPYBZZ064)和中南林业科技大学青年科学研究基金项目(2015QZ004)资助 This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601143),the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2015JJ3179),the Scientific Research Project of Education Department of Hunan Province(15C1447),the General Project of Hunan Social Science Achievements Review Committee in 2016 (XSPYBZZ064) and the Youth Science Research Foundation of Central South University of Forestry and Technology (2015QZ004). （41601143）
