电力需求侧管理2017，Vol.19Issue(6)：7-13,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2017.06.003
基于皮尔逊相关系数的电网夏季空调负荷预测研究
Air-condition load forecasting in summer of power grid using pearson correlation coefficient
唐伟斌 1李涛 1邹品晶 2曾建平 1向仲卿 1胡斯佳3
作者信息
- 1. 国网常德供电公司,湖南 常德 415000
- 2. 国网岳阳供电公司,湖南 岳阳 414000
- 3. 湖南大学,长沙 410082
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, the variation rule of the air-condi-tioning load in summer regional power grid can be obtained using statistical analysis. By overall considering the influencing factors of air-conditioning load, the forecasting model of summer air-condition-ing load in regional power grid was built. The model was based on the load curves of the regional power grid, and realized the effective separation of the air-conditioning load curve. Then the Pearson cor-relation coefficient was used to investigate the correlation between various factors and daily maximum air-conditioning cooling load. Through comparing the correlation coefficient between the daily maximum air-conditioning cooling load and all kinds of indexes, an economic-meteorological comprehensive index, reflecting the fact that the daily maximum air-conditioning load is greatly affected by the meteorological and socio-economic in a region, was constructed. And the regression analysis was used to extract the change rule of the air conditioning cooling load and the comprehensive index. Fi-nally, the accurate prediction of summer air-conditioning load is re-alized. A regional data of power load and its related factors from 2006 to 2015 was used as training sample to forecast the summer air-conditioning load in 2016 of the region. The forecasting results proved the validity of the proposed model.关键词
空调降温负荷/Pearson相关系数/经济气象综合指标/预测模型Key words
air-conditioning cooling load/Pearson correla-tion coefficient/the economic-meteorological comprehensive index/forecasting model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
唐伟斌,李涛,邹品晶,曾建平,向仲卿,胡斯佳..基于皮尔逊相关系数的电网夏季空调负荷预测研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2017,19(6):7-13,7.
