干旱区研究2017，Vol.34Issue(6)：1402-1409,8.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2017.06.24
基于Logistic回归模型的北京市耕地变化驱动力分析
Driving Forces of Arable Land Change in Beijing Based on Logistic Regression Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the land use/cover maps in 2000 and 2010,the characteristics of spatial change and its driving factors about Beijing's arable land transition were studied with the help of GIS and SPSS.During the process,the spatial change of arable land,as the dependent variable,and other 20 explanatory variables chosen from natural factors,socio-economic factors and integrated factors were analyzed by the multinomial Logistic regression model.The results were as follows:① The change of arable land,the key problem in Beijing,was impacted by general needs and spatial factors together.② Population growth,economic development,forestation,reservoir water volume and urban planning were the macro factors that influenced the direction of arable land change in Beijing.③ While elevation,erosion intensity,distance to rural settlements,and the number of arable land in the neighborhood determined the spatial change of arable land together.④ Specifically,among natural factors,with higher elevation,steeper slopes,higher intensity erosion and more undulating terrain,the arable land was more easily transformed to grass and forest land,and construction land was more easily converted to arable land.While the opposite transformation of arable land was harder.It means that the arable land in Beijing was changing in an environmentally friendly way.⑤ Among socio-economic factors,with shorter distance to the center of the counties and rural settlements,greater road network density,faster speed of population density growth,the arable land was more easily transformed to construction land.Grass and forest land were more easily changed to arable land.While the opposite transformation of arable land was harder.It meant that with easier human accessibility to,the land use types were more likely to shift towards the ones which represent higher levels of human disturbance.⑥ Among integrated factors,the amount of arable land and construction land in the neighborhood were the major driving factors.Grass land,forest land and construction land were more easily transformed to arable land with more arable land in the neighborhood.With more construction land in the neighborhood,arable land was more easily transformed to construction land.It meant that both of arable land and construction land tend to expand.⑦ Overall,arable land in Beijing was changing towards a better direction.关键词
土地利用变化/耕地/Logistic回归模型/驱动力/北京Key words
land use change/arable land/Logistic regression model/driving factor/Beijing引用本文复制引用
姜楠,贾宝全,宋宜昊..基于Logistic回归模型的北京市耕地变化驱动力分析[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(6):1402-1409,8.基金项目
林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目“美丽城镇森林景观的构建技术研究与示范”(201404301) （201404301）
北京市自然科学基金(8152031)资助 （8152031）
