气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(6)：557-568,12.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.101
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0模式及其驱动下RegCM4.4模式对中国气候变化的预估
Comparison of Climate Projection Between the Driving CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and the Downscaling Simulation of RegCM4.4 over China
摘要
Abstract
A 151-year (1950-2100) dynamical downscaling simulation over East Asia is conducted by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 at 25 km grid spacing, which is nested within CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Climate changes over China during the 21st century under the RCP4.5 scenario from CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and RegCM4.4 are analyzed. Both simulations project that continuous warming with large regional variations will occur in the future. The two simulations obtain similar inter-annual fluctuations of regional average warming, with RegCM4.4 obtaining somewhat smaller values than CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Projected precipitation changes are even more regionally variable than temperature changes. In western China, both models project increased precipitation, while the projections from two models show different regional details in eastern China. In both simulations, projected annual mean precipitation on national scale does not change significantly due to the contrast changes between dry and wet seasons. To analyze uncertainties of the projected climate change in China, the simulation of RegCM4.4 is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 at the same horizontal resolution. The overall consistency in precipitation change between RegCM3 and RegCM4.4 is projected across western China, while inconsistency is identified in most of eastern China.关键词
气候变化预估/RegCM4.4/中国区域/RCP4.5Key words
climate change projection/RegCM4.4/China/RCP4.5引用本文复制引用
张冬峰,韩振宇,石英..CSIRO-Mk3.6.0模式及其驱动下RegCM4.4模式对中国气候变化的预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(6):557-568,12.基金项目
资助项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201509,CCSF201626) （CCSF201509,CCSF201626）
