气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(6)：598-605,8.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.024
长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响
Projection of Sea Level Rise and Its Impacts on Coastal Wetlands Within the Yangtze Estuary
摘要
Abstract
A new statistical method was proposed to project the sea level rise (SLR) within the Yangtze Estuary using the monitoring data at two tide gauge stations (Wusong and Lüsi), and then four representative prediction values of SLR published in previous research were integrated, to generate a relatively complete scenario matrix for studies of SLR in this area. Setting the year 2013 as the baseline, the optimum projection range of SLR projected to the year 2030, 2050 and 2100 is 50-217 mm, 118-430 mm and 256-1215 mm, respectively. Moreover, the impacts of SLR in each projected scenario were evaluated, and for simplicity, only the change of coastal wetlands area was considered in this paper. Results showed that, with SLR becoming increasingly remarkable, the coastal wetlands in Yangtze Estuary would shrink continuously. Besides, in scenarios without consideration of climate change, which means that the SLR are projected merely on basis of historical data, the shrink of wetland area is notably slower, compared with that in scenarios which considered global warming. In general, the shrink of wetland area is larger in the long term (2100) than that in the short term (2030 and 2050).关键词
长江口/海平面上升/预测/情景分析/滨海湿地Key words
Yangtze Estuary/sea level rise/projection/scenario analysis/coastal wetlands引用本文复制引用
易思,谭金凯,李梦雅,梁鑫鑫,王军..长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(6):598-605,8.基金项目
资助项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671095,51761135024,71373084) （41671095,51761135024,71373084）
国家自然科学基金人才培养项目(J1310028) （J1310028）
