气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(6)：606-613,8.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.027
未来气候变化对湖北省钉螺潜在分布的影响
Impact of Future Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and combined with topographic, vegetational, meteorological and other environmental factors, potential distribution of Oncomelania in Hubei province in base period (1986-2005) was simulated, and potential distribution risk zones of Oncomelania in Hubei province under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during 2021-2040, 2051-2070 and 2081-2100 were projected respectively. The results showed that, the projection with MaxEnt model had a higher simulation accuracy with its mean AUC of ROC value of 0.894±0.024, which was credible and acceptable for future Oncomelania potential distribution projection in Hubei province under the three RCPs. Oncomelania potential distribution illustrated an extension at low and middle risk by 4.5% and 1.6% respectively and reduction of risk-free by 9.3% compared with the base period. Oncomelania potential distribution zones at middle and high risk would move northward.关键词
钉螺/气候变化/最大熵模型/潜在分布Key words
Oncomelania/climate change/maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model/potential distribution引用本文复制引用
汤阳,刘可群,魏凤华,任永健,张丽文,肖玮钰..未来气候变化对湖北省钉螺潜在分布的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(6):606-613,8.基金项目
资助项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201409) （CCSF201409）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571487) （41571487）
