摘要
Abstract
According to the basic principle and calculation model of water resources ecological footprint,the water resources load index is introduced to calculate the ecological footprint of water resources and the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014,and the gray forecasting model GM (1,1) is used to predict the ecological deficit/surplus trends from 2015 to 2025.The results show that:① The ecological footprint of water resources in Xinjiang is larger than the ecological capacity of water resources,and it is in ecological deficit,which decreases from -7.83 × 107 hrn2 in 2005 to-9.06 × 107 hm2 in 2013,and the development rate of water resources is low;② The ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang increased from 2005 to 2014,the per capita ecological footprint and the per capita carrying capacity fluctuated,and the ecological footprint of the production water was the largest among the three water resources account,far exceeding the other two parts,accounted for 95.86 ％ of the total water footprint;③ The water resources load index showed an upward trend,indicating that the utilization of water resources was gradually strengthened.The load index was between 2 ～ 5 from 2004 to 2012,indicated moderate degree of utilization of water resources in Xinjiang;and the load index was between 5 ～ 10,the results show that Xinjiang's water resources utilization is high and the development conditions are difficult;④ The distribution of water resources in Xinjiang is not uniform.The distribution of water resources in Southem Xinjiang,Northern Xinjiang and Eastern Xinjiang is quite different.The water footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Southern and Northern Xinjiang are greater than that of Eastern Xinjiang,and the Milion Yuan GDP water ecological footprint of Southern and Northem Xinjiang are less than that of Eastern Xinjiang;⑤ the water resources ecological deficit from 2015 to 2025 had been predicted,it showed that Xinjiang's water resources has been in the state of ecological deficit,which led to a decrease of water resources year by year.and the situation is worse which will be even severe in the future,so the use of water conservation awareness must be enhanced.关键词
生态足迹/水资源负载指数/水资源生态赤字/GM(1,1)模型Key words
ecological footprint/load index of water resources/water resources ecological deficit/GM(1,1) model分类
建筑与水利
