海洋开发与管理2017，Vol.34Issue(12)：118-124,7.
气候变化背景下北极航线综合评估模型研究
Integrated Assessment Model of Arctic Routes with Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
With the impact of global warming,parts of the Arctic region become ice free in sum-mer.Comparing to the traditional sailing routes,the Arctic routes have shorter distance,more relatively stable geopolitical environment,which have stimulated people to explore the Arctic routes enthusiastically.This paper,from the perspective of climate change,built an integrated assessment model which contains navigation environment module,route planning module and e-conomic profits module to assess the impact of meteorological and hydrological features such as the Arctic sea ice,wind,wave,flow and depth etc.on the sailing speed,to count the number of days that ships can navigate at the north pole.In the model,an A-Star algorithm was used to find the optimal path of Arctic routes and the economic profits of sailing on the Arctic routes had been calculated.The proposed model and algorithm was used to simulate an existing scenario (RCP4.5 ).The results showed that in the year of 2050,the economic benefits of the route through the Suez Canal will be higher,and the Arctic route can be used as a substitute route.关键词
北极航线/气候变化/航行速度/航线规划/经济效益Key words
Arctic routes/Climate change/Navigation speed/Optimal routes/Economic profits分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
汪杨骏,张韧,王哲,朱颖倩..气候变化背景下北极航线综合评估模型研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2017,34(12):118-124,7.基金项目
"全球变化与海气相互作用"国家专项. （）
