海洋预报2017，Vol.34Issue(6)：89-98,10.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2017.06.011
海洋气候变化预估及研究方法综述
Review on the projection and study methods of ocean climate change
摘要
Abstract
The projection of the main ocean climate changes in the future are generalized.The major climate models used to simulate the ocean climate are summarized,including Simple Conceptual Climate Models (SCMs),Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity(EMICs),General Circulation Models(GCMs) and Earth System Models(ESMs).The methods of multi-model ensemble and dynamical down-scaling in the ocean climate change projection are introduced.The paper points out some proposals on the projection of ocean climate change research.The projection of some regional oceans and climate system natural variabilities which have great values to the climate change is still under a low level.High-resolution climate system models and probabilistic prediction can efficiently reduce the projection uncertainty.The research and development of high-resolution climate models and application of probabilistic prediction are the two main study direction.关键词
海洋气候变化预估/气候模式/多模式集合/动力降尺度Key words
ocean climate change projection/climate model/multi-model ensemble/dynamical down-scaling分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
何越,蔡怡,陈幸荣,王海燕..海洋气候变化预估及研究方法综述[J].海洋预报,2017,34(6):89-98,10.基金项目
国家海洋局公益性行业科研专项(201505013). （201505013）
