沙漠与绿洲气象2017，Vol.11Issue(5)：53-62,10.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2017.05.008
CMIP5模式对未来30 a新疆夏季降水的预估
Projected Summer Precipitation over Xinjiang by Multi-CMIP5 Models in the Next 30 Years
摘要
Abstract
Based on the outputs of historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) experiments produced by 25 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP5), using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset and several statistical methods, the performances in simulating the annual summer rainfall during 1979—2005 have been assessed, according to which, some preferable models among them has being identified. and projected changes in summer rainfall over Xinjiang of northwestern China in the next 30 a (2021—2050) have been further estimated. In terms of climatic mean and inter-annual standard deviation (ISD), there are notable differences among the 25 CMIP5 models, and part of them can well capture the main spatial patterns of summer rainfall over Xinjiang, such as the precipitation center over the Ili River Valley and shadows over the southern and eastern Xinjiang. Due to the 9 selected models' ensemble outputs, the spatial distribution of precipitation is identical to the observation. However, the simulated intensity and regions are overestimated while the ISD are underestimated over the west of southern Xinjiang and northern Kunlun Mountains. In the next 30 years, the summer rainfall decreases slightly over most of the northern Xinjiang and part of the eastern Xinjiang while increases significantly over the Ili River Valley and most of the southern Xinjiang with maximum centers located in the west of southern Xinjiang and northern Kunlun Mountains. The ISD is more remarkable in the mountains than other regions, and shows a gradually increasing trend over the Ili River Valley, as well as the west of the southern Xinjiang and northern Kunlun Mountains. Further analysis shows that the precipitation changes are closely related to the anomalous circulation configuration at 500 hPa. Southerly winds intensify and maintain an anticyclonic circulation over the northern Xinjiang while easterly winds and a cyclonic circulation over southern Xinjiang, which results in the increase of summer precipitation over the southern Xinjiang and decrease over the northern Xinjiang.关键词
CMIP5模式/新疆/夏季降水/预估Key words
CMIP5 models/Xinjiang/summer precipitation/projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
于晓晶,李淑娟,赵勇,姚俊强,李红军..CMIP5模式对未来30 a新疆夏季降水的预估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(5):53-62,10.基金项目
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(41375101),国家自然基金联合基金(U1503181),中央级公益科研院所基本科研业务专项(IDM201506),国家自然科学基金(41605067,91437109)共同资助. （41375101）
