中国电机工程学报2017，Vol.37Issue(24)：7099-7107,9.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.170327
基于概率分布量化指标和灰色关联决策的风电功率实时预测研究
Real-time Wind Power Prediction Based on Probability Distribution and Gray Relational Decision-making
摘要
Abstract
How to effectively introduce wind speed information for high-precision prediction, for large-scale wind farm wind power real-time predict, needs for further study. Firstly, a gray relational algorithm in gray theory was introduced to establish a quantitative analysis model based on probability distribution index. Then, the model was analyzed by the measured wind field data, and the gray relation decision model and the standard wind speed power curve were used to build the real-time prediction model of wind power based on gray relational decision. The wind power of a large-scale wind field in northeast China was selected and predicted. By means of error analysis, this method could effectively improve the prediction accuracy compared with the algorithm based on historical wind speed or completely based on historical power.关键词
风电功率/灰色关联/概率分布/量化指标/风速Key words
wind power/gray relation/probability distribution/quantitative indicators/wind speed分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨茂,黄宾阳,江博..基于概率分布量化指标和灰色关联决策的风电功率实时预测研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(24):7099-7107,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900101). National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFB0900101). （2016YFB0900101）
